Weekly OutlookBTCUSD
Bitcoin Weekly Outlook: week of 05 Oct
Bias: 🟡 Neutral at resistance. Bullish only on a weekly close above 86,386.66
The big picture
BTC has rallied from the 61,323.88 support area back into 86,386.66, the level that broke down in January and launched the sell-off. 77,944.46 flipped from resistance to support in September and held on the retest.
Last week tagged 86,386.66 and closed just above it. This is a marginal close, not acceptance. This week opened at 86,516.61 and is trading back under the level, so the weekly close decides the next leg.
Scenarios
| Scenario | Trigger | Target |
|---|---|---|
| 🟢 Bull case | Weekly close and hold above 86,386.66 | 93,509.77 |
| 🔴 Bear case | Rejection at 86,386.66, weekly close back below it | 77,944.46 |
| 🔴 Extended bear | Weekly close below 77,944.46 | 69,634.17 |
Key levels
| Type | Price | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Resistance | 93,509.77 | Q4 2025 range high, Jan breakdown origin |
| 🔴 Resistance | 86,386.66 | Jan breakdown level, being tested now |
| 🟢 Support | 77,944.46 | Flipped resistance → support (Sep retest) |
| 🟢 Support | 69,634.17 | Feb–Apr range floor |
| 🟢 Support | 61,323.88 | Cycle low area (Jun–Jul) |
Plan the week, trade the day. A wick above 86,386.66 is not a breakout. Wait for the weekly close.
The author may hold positions in this instrument. Not financial advice. Disclosures