Ethereum Daily Outlook: Mon 05 Oct

Bias: 🟡 Neutral, coiling under 2,767.85. Direction comes from the break.

The picture

ETH broke out of the August–September range above 2,509.11, wicked through 2,767.85 and got rejected. Since then it has compressed in a tight range just under resistance for two weeks without giving back the breakout. Holding near the highs is constructive, but there is no acceptance above 2,767.85 yet.

Key levels

Type	Price	Note
🔴 Resistance	3,218.05	Next major resistance if the breakout holds
🔴 Resistance	2,767.85	Late-Sep rejection, range top
🟢 Support	2,509.11	Old range top, flipped resistance → support
🟢 Support	2,245.20	Apr–May range support, Aug breakout base
🟢 Support	1,888.14	Jul–Aug accumulation floor

Scenarios

Scenario	Trigger	Target
🟢 Bull case	D1 close and hold above 2,767.85	3,218.05
🔴 Bear case	Rejection and breakdown from the current range	2,509.11

Plan

No trades inside the range. Wait for a daily close outside it.
On a breakout, look for a retest of 2,767.85 as support before longs.
On a breakdown, expect buyers at 2,509.11.
Watch BTC: if it rejects 86,386.66, ETH is unlikely to break out alone.
No new trades 30 minutes either side of high-impact news.

Invalidation: a D1 close below 2,509.11 cancels the breakout structure.